Bilqi Forum  

Geri git   Bilqi Forum > > >

ÖDEVLERİNİZİ BULMAKTA ZORLANIYOMUSUNUZ!

SORUN ANINDA CEVAPLIYALIM.

TÜM SORULARINIZA ANINDA CEVAP VERİLECEKTİR !

Sitemize Üye Olmadan Konulara Cevap Yazabilir Ayrıca Soru Cevap Bölümüne Konu Açabilirsiniz !

Yeni Konu aç Cevapla
 
Seçenekler Stil
Alt 03-11-2008, 09:02   #1
Yaso
Operator
 
Yaso - ait Kullanıcı Resmi (Avatar)
 
Üyelik tarihi: Jan 2008
Mesajlar: 32.967
Tecrübe Puanı: 1000
Yaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond reputeYaso has a reputation beyond repute
Standart Official Name:

OFFICIAL NAME:
Dominican Republic
Geography
Area: 48,442 sq. km. (18,704 sq. mi.), about the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined.
Cities: Capital--Santo Domingo (pop. 2.4 million). Other city--Santiago de los Caballeros (500,000).
Terrain: Mountainous.
Climate: Maritime tropical.
People
Nationality: Noun and adjective--Dominican(s).
Population (1997): 8 million.
Annual growth rate: 2.6%.
Ethnic groups: European 16%, African origin 11%, mixed 73%.
Religion: Roman Catholic 95%.
Language: Spanish.
Education: Years compulsory--6. Attendance--70%. Literacy--83%.
Health: Infant mortality rate--54/1,000. Life expectancy--65 years for men, 70 years for women.
Work force: Services and government--31% (includes parastatal corporations); agriculture--28%; industry--12%; unemployment--about 16%.
Government
Type: Representative democracy.
Independence: February 27, 1844.
Constitution: November 28, 1966.
Branches: Executive--president (chief of state and head of government, vice president, cabinet. Legislative--bicameral Congress (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). Judicial--Supreme Court of Justice.
Subdivisions: 31 provinces and the National District of Santo Domingo.
Political parties: Social Christian Reformist Party (PRSC), Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD), Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), and several others.
Suffrage: Universal and compulsory, over 18 or married.
Economy (2001)
GDP: $21.6 billion.
Growth rate (2001): 3.0%.
Per capita GDP: $2,486.
Nonfuel minerals (2% of GDP): Nickel, gold, silver.
Agriculture (12% of GDP): Products--sugar, coffee, cocoa, bananas, tobacco, rice, plantains, beef, flowers.
Industry (29% of GDP): Types--sugar refining, pharmaceuticals, cement, light manufacturing, construction; services, including tourism and transportation--45% of GDP.
Trade: Exports ($6.2 billion, including processing zones: textiles, sugar, coffee, ferronickel, cacao, tobacco, meats and medical supplies. Markets--U.S. (72%), Canada, western Europe. Imports--$9.0 billion: food stuffs, petroleum, industrial raw materials, capital goods. Suppliers--U.S. (53%), Japan, Germany, Venezuela, Mexico.

ECONOMY
The Dominican Republic is a middle-income developing country primarily dependent on agriculture, trade, and services, especially tourism. Although the service sector has recently overtaken agriculture as the leading employer of Dominicans (due principally to growth in tourism, energy, telecommunications, and Free Trade Zones), agriculture remains the most important sector in terms of domestic consumption. Tourism accounts for nearly $1.5 billion in annual earnings. Free Trade Zone earnings and tourism are the fastest-growing export sectors. Remittances from Dominicans living in the United States are estimated to total more than $1.5 billion per year.
Following economic turmoil in the late 1980s and 1990, during which the GDP fell by up to 5% and consumer price inflation reached an unprecedented 100%, the Dominican Republic entered a period of high growth and moderate inflation. GDP in 2001 grew by only 3.0% following 5 straight years of growth above 7.0%. The inflation rate in 2001 was about 5%.
Despite a widening merchandise trade deficit, tourism earnings and remittances have helped build foreign exchange reserves. The Dominican Republic is current on foreign private debt and has agreed to pay arrears of about $130 million to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Commodity Credit Corporation. The government faces several economic policy challenges--high real interest rates, poor tax-collection rates, and reduced demand for Dominican exports due to the slowdown in the world economy. Years of tariff protection for domestic production have left the economy vulnerable in a rapidly integrating global economy.

Week 1-2:
Regression Analysis:





This scatter diagram shows the relationship between pc and gdp. The constant increase can be easily seen from the diagram.




Dependent Variable: PC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/01/02 Time: 09:54
Sample: 1960 1998
Included observations: 39
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.666160 0.164255 4.055635 0.0002
GDP 0.738737 0.020754 35.59469 0.0000
R-squared 0.971625 Mean dependent var 5.905436
Adjusted R-squared 0.970858 S.D. dependent var 2.666823
S.E. of regression 0.455250 Akaike info criterion 1.313981
Sum squared resid 7.668353 Schwarz criterion 1.399292
Log likelihood -23.62264 F-statistic 1266.982
Durbin-Watson stat 0.505210 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

The R-squared statistic measures the success of the regression in predicting the values of the dependent variable. The coefficient of the variable GDP represents the slope of the relation between the independent variable (GDP) and the dependent variable (PC). It is also be known as the MPC. The coefficient of the constant C represents the intercept in the regression
--------------------------

Import Function:
Dependent Variable: IMP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/08/02 Time: 11:01
Sample: 1960 1998
Included observations: 39
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.242519 0.188854 1.284158 0.2071
GDP 0.512767 0.023862 21.48857 0.0000
R-squared 0.925816 Mean dependent var 3.879166
Adjusted R-squared 0.923811 S.D. dependent var 1.896318
S.E. of regression 0.523429 Akaike info criterion 1.593089
Sum squared resid 10.13718 Schwarz criterion 1.678400
Log likelihood -29.06524 F-statistic 461.7586
Durbin-Watson stat 1.276299 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000


White Heteroskedasticity Test:

White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 1.221251 Probability 0.306786
Obs*R-squared 2.477923 Probability 0.289685

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/08/02 Time: 11:02
Sample: 1960 1998
Included observations: 39
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.305391 0.375013 -0.814346 0.4208
GDP 0.170385 0.110637 1.540043 0.1323
GDP^2 -0.010267 0.007143 -1.437315 0.1593
R-squared 0.063536 Mean dependent var 0.259928
Adjusted R-squared 0.011511 S.D. dependent var 0.562403
S.E. of regression 0.559156 Akaike info criterion 1.749028
Sum squared resid 11.25561 Schwarz criterion 1.876994
Log likelihood -31.10605 F-statistic 1.221251
Durbin-Watson stat 1.454251 Prob(F-statistic) 0.306786
White's Heteroskedasticity Test is a test for heteroskedasticity in the residuals from a least squares regression
HO: No heteroskedasticity
HA: There is heteroskedasticity
The probability is bigger than 5%. So, we accept HO. It means there is no heteroskedasticity.

Serial correlation Test:

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 5.638093 Probability 0.007541
Obs*R-squared 9.503187 Probability 0.008638

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/08/02 Time: 11:03
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.000388 0.169417 0.002290 0.9982
GDP 0.000274 0.021462 0.012779 0.9899
RESID(-1) 0.482549 0.160477 3.006967 0.0049
RESID(-2) -0.392171 0.160710 -2.440235 0.0199
R-squared 0.243671 Mean dependent var -2.28E-17
Adjusted R-squared 0.178843 S.D. dependent var 0.516496
S.E. of regression 0.468037 Akaike info criterion 1.416374
Sum squared resid 7.667040 Schwarz criterion 1.586996
Log likelihood -23.61930 F-statistic 3.758728
Durbin-Watson stat 2.082533 Prob(F-statistic) 0.019351
Ho: There is no serial correlation.
HA: There is serial correlation
We have to reject Ho. There is a serial correlation.

Normality Test:
Histogram:

In this test we observe the histogram and descriptive statistics of the residuals.


Ho: Normal
HA: Non-normal
The probability in this test is less than 5% so we accept HA.

Ramsey RESET Test:

Reset is the short written way of Regression Specification Error Test.
Y = X + 

Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic 1.279039 Probability 0.290993
Log likelihood ratio 2.751076 Probability 0.252704

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: IMP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/08/02 Time: 11:05
Sample: 1960 1998
Included observations: 39
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.781753 0.759826 -1.028858 0.3106
GDP 1.152478 0.427940 2.693082 0.0108
FITTED^2 -0.323178 0.207527 -1.557284 0.1284
FITTED^3 0.024578 0.015457 1.590071 0.1208
R-squared 0.930868 Mean dependent var 3.879166
Adjusted R-squared 0.924943 S.D. dependent var 1.896318
S.E. of regression 0.519526 Akaike info criterion 1.625113
Sum squared resid 9.446739 Schwarz criterion 1.795735
Log likelihood -27.68971 F-statistic 157.0938
Durbin-Watson stat 1.332522 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000


------------------------
Consumption Function:

Dependent Variable: PC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/08/02 Time: 10:53
Sample: 1960 1998
Included observations: 39
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.666160 0.164255 4.055635 0.0002
GDP 0.738737 0.020754 35.59469 0.0000
R-squared 0.971625 Mean dependent var 5.905436
Adjusted R-squared 0.970858 S.D. dependent var 2.666823
S.E. of regression 0.455250 Akaike info criterion 1.313981
Sum squared resid 7.668353 Schwarz criterion 1.399292
Log likelihood -23.62264 F-statistic 1266.982
Durbin-Watson stat 0.505210 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 8.516152 Probability 0.000937
Obs*R-squared 12.52557 Probability 0.001906

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/08/02 Time: 10:54
Sample: 1960 1998
Included observations: 39
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.248531 0.091017 2.730610 0.0097
GDP -0.046176 0.026852 -1.719643 0.0941
GDP^2 0.004400 0.001734 2.537777 0.0156
R-squared 0.321168 Mean dependent var 0.196624
Adjusted R-squared 0.283456 S.D. dependent var 0.160320
S.E. of regression 0.135709 Akaike info criterion -1.082807
Sum squared resid 0.663008 Schwarz criterion -0.954841
Log likelihood 24.11474 F-statistic 8.516152
Durbin-Watson stat 1.801088 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000937
HO: There is no heteroskedasticity
HA: There is heteroskedasticity
The probability is less then 5%. Because of this we have to reject HO. There is heteroskedasticity.


Serial correlation Test :

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 20.16328 Probability 0.000001
Obs*R-squared 20.87890 Probability 0.000029

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/08/02 Time: 10:56
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.068422 0.116230 0.588678 0.5599
GDP -0.012629 0.014854 -0.850246 0.4010
RESID(-1) 0.607448 0.165466 3.671146 0.0008
RESID(-2) 0.225140 0.175996 1.279229 0.2092
R-squared 0.535356 Mean dependent var 2.68E-16
Adjusted R-squared 0.495530 S.D. dependent var 0.449220
S.E. of regression 0.319063 Akaike info criterion 0.650061
Sum squared resid 3.563051 Schwarz criterion 0.820682
Log likelihood -8.676185 F-statistic 13.44219
Durbin-Watson stat 2.073401 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000005
Ho: There is no serial correlation.
HA: There is serial correlation
The probability is smaller than 5% so we have to accept HA. There is serial correlation


Normality Test:



Ho: It is normal
HA: It is non-normal.
The probability is higher than 05%, we should accept the null hypothesis. We accept normality. The Jarque-Bera statistic is not significant.


Specification Error:

Ramsey RESET Test:

Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic 52.26283 Probability 0.000000
Log likelihood ratio 53.93312 Probability 0.000000

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: PC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/08/02 Time: 10:58
Sample: 1960 1998
Included observations: 39
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -1.424275 0.329074 -4.328130 0.0001
GDP 1.817657 0.214539 8.472395 0.0000
FITTED^2 -0.185311 0.047319 -3.916198 0.0004
FITTED^3 0.006518 0.002333 2.794506 0.0084
R-squared 0.992882 Mean dependent var 5.905436
Adjusted R-squared 0.992272 S.D. dependent var 2.666823
S.E. of regression 0.234436 Akaike info criterion 0.033645
Sum squared resid 1.923606 Schwarz criterion 0.204267
Log likelihood 3.343923 F-statistic 1627.423
Durbin-Watson stat 2.000950 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Ho: There is no specification error.
HA: There is specification error
The probability is 0; than we should reject the null Hypothesis. There is a specification error.


----------------------
Week3:

Dependent Variable: PC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:29
Sample: 1960 1998
Included observations: 39
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.022660 0.124072 0.182637 0.8561
GDP 0.893955 0.022288 40.10924 0.0000
CPI -0.001759 0.000211 -8.345679 0.0000
R-squared 0.990331 Mean dependent var 5.905436
Adjusted R-squared 0.989794 S.D. dependent var 2.666823
S.E. of regression 0.269411 Akaike info criterion 0.288647
Sum squared resid 2.612965 Schwarz criterion 0.416613
Log likelihood -2.628619 F-statistic 1843.705
Durbin-Watson stat 1.652667 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
This table shows the multiple regression analysis of consumption (PC) on income (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI).
pc=0+1gdp+2cpi+ut




Wald Test:

The Wald test shows the test statistic by estimating the unrestricted regression without imposing the coefficient restrictions specified by the null hypothesis. It measures how close the unrestricted estimates come to satisfying the restrictions under the null hypothesis. If the restrictions are in fact true, then the unrestricted estimates should come close to satisfying the restrictions. When the probability value is zero; we should reject the null hypothesis.

Wald Test:

Equation: Untitled
Null Hypothesis: C(2)=C(3)
F-statistic 1589.855 Probability 0.000000
Chi-square 1589.855 Probability 0.000000


AR(1) is used for repearing the serial correlation problem.

Dependent Variable: PC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:33
Sample(adjusted): 1961 1998
Included observations: 38 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 6 iterations
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 1.045192 0.471222 2.218046 0.0331
GDP 0.692714 0.051827 13.36595 0.0000
AR(1) 0.739684 0.113956 6.490947 0.0000
R-squared 0.986826 Mean dependent var 6.016579
Adjusted R-squared 0.986073 S.D. dependent var 2.609479
S.E. of regression 0.307954 Akaike info criterion 0.557922
Sum squared resid 3.319242 Schwarz criterion 0.687205
Log likelihood -7.600520 F-statistic 1310.837
Durbin-Watson stat 2.388391 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Inverted AR Roots .74




Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 6.935999 Probability 0.003058
Obs*R-squared 11.24629 Probability 0.003613

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:34
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.695231 0.448552 1.549944 0.1307
GDP -0.070234 0.048681 -1.442735 0.1585
AR(1) 0.491593 0.166174 2.958295 0.0057
RESID(-1) -0.816241 0.240047 -3.400333 0.0018
RESID(-2) -0.647157 0.198902 -3.253649 0.0026
R-squared 0.295955 Mean dependent var 1.13E-10
Adjusted R-squared 0.210616 S.D. dependent var 0.299515
S.E. of regression 0.266111 Akaike info criterion 0.312272
Sum squared resid 2.336896 Schwarz criterion 0.527744
Log likelihood -0.933175 F-statistic 3.467999
Durbin-Watson stat 2.214873 Prob(F-statistic) 0.017990
Ho: There is no serial correlation.
HA: There is serial correlation
P value is less than 5%. We accept HA.


Stationary Conditions:
If ;
• E (Xt) is constant
• Var (Xt) is constant
• Cov (Xt,Xt+k) is constant ;
then we can say that the time series is stationary.


First order autoregressive process AR (1):
Xt =  Xt-1 + Ut

This time series is stationary if –1<  < 1, non stationary if  -1 or   1, random walk if =1.

ADF Test for Consumption (PC):

ADF Test Statistic -5.761092 1% Critical Value* -3.6228
5% Critical Value -2.9446
10% Critical Value -2.6105
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(PC,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:41
Sample(adjusted): 1963 1998
Included observations: 36 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(PC(-1)) -1.519890 0.263820 -5.761092 0.0000
D(PC(-1),2) 0.280048 0.170288 1.644555 0.1096
C 0.363888 0.091466 3.978388 0.0004
R-squared 0.614914 Mean dependent var 0.010028
Adjusted R-squared 0.591576 S.D. dependent var 0.642288
S.E. of regression 0.410474 Akaike info criterion 1.136645
Sum squared resid 5.560126 Schwarz criterion 1.268605
Log likelihood -17.45962 F-statistic 26.34762
Durbin-Watson stat 1.884065 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000








ADF Test for Import (Imp):

ADF Test Statistic -5.179449 1% Critical Value* -3.6228
5% Critical Value -2.9446
10% Critical Value -2.6105
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(IMP,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:43
Sample(adjusted): 1963 1998
Included observations: 36 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(IMP(-1)) -1.310214 0.252964 -5.179449 0.0000
D(IMP(-1),2) 0.269761 0.173723 1.552817 0.1300
C 0.243872 0.121555 2.006271 0.0531
R-squared 0.532658 Mean dependent var 0.014535
Adjusted R-squared 0.504334 S.D. dependent var 0.969808
S.E. of regression 0.682779 Akaike info criterion 2.154365
Sum squared resid 15.38418 Schwarz criterion 2.286324
Log likelihood -35.77856 F-statistic 18.80605
Durbin-Watson stat 2.043913 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000004




ADF Test for GDP:

ADF Test Statistic -6.160809 1% Critical Value* -3.6289
5% Critical Value -2.9472
10% Critical Value -2.6118
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(GDP,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:45
Sample(adjusted): 1964 1998
Included observations: 35 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(GDP(-1),2) -1.763893 0.286309 -6.160809 0.0000
D(GDP(-1),3) 0.248287 0.168729 1.471514 0.1509
C 0.040499 0.058376 0.693762 0.4928
R-squared 0.725862 Mean dependent var 0.004714
Adjusted R-squared 0.708728 S.D. dependent var 0.635885
S.E. of regression 0.343185 Akaike info criterion 0.780720
Sum squared resid 3.768821 Schwarz criterion 0.914035
Log likelihood -10.66259 F-statistic 42.36475
Durbin-Watson stat 2.137174 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000




ADF Test for CPI:

ADF Test Statistic -5.644412 1% Critical Value* -3.6289
5% Critical Value -2.9472
10% Critical Value -2.6118
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(CPI,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:46
Sample(adjusted): 1964 1998
Included observations: 35 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(CPI(-1),2) -1.495519 0.264956 -5.644412 0.0000
D(CPI(-1),3) 0.259461 0.173492 1.495518 0.1446
C 2.438152 7.337492 0.332287 0.7418
R-squared 0.617124 Mean dependent var -0.971429
Adjusted R-squared 0.593194 S.D. dependent var 67.87640
S.E. of regression 43.29248 Akaike info criterion 10.45565
Sum squared resid 59975.66 Schwarz criterion 10.58897
Log likelihood -179.9739 F-statistic 25.78895
Durbin-Watson stat 2.089149 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Stationary for cpi. Second difference


-----------------------------

Cointegration:

ADF Test Statistic -1.537282 1% Critical Value* -3.6171
5% Critical Value -2.9422
10% Critical Value -2.6092
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(RES)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:00
Sample(adjusted): 1962 1998
Included observations: 37 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
RES(-1) -0.201513 0.131084 -1.537282 0.1335
D(RES(-1)) -0.217358 0.171489 -1.267473 0.2136
C 0.000811 0.051016 0.015905 0.9874
R-squared 0.163197 Mean dependent var -0.005871
Adjusted R-squared 0.113973 S.D. dependent var 0.327908
S.E. of regression 0.308657 Akaike info criterion 0.564432
Sum squared resid 3.239149 Schwarz criterion 0.695047
Log likelihood -7.441988 F-statistic 3.315413
Durbin-Watson stat 2.156524 Prob(F-statistic) 0.048372

Res is not stationary. Pc and gdp is not cointegrated.
We regress dpc on dgdp

Dependent Variable: DPC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/02 Time: 09:06
Sample(adjusted): 1961 1998
Included observations: 38 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.016560 0.076008 -0.217876 0.8288
DGDP 0.774849 0.163172 4.748674 0.0000
R-squared 0.385140 Mean dependent var 0.241342
Adjusted R-squared 0.368060 S.D. dependent var 0.412343
S.E. of regression 0.327791 Akaike info criterion 0.658314
Sum squared resid 3.868086 Schwarz criterion 0.744503
Log likelihood -10.50796 F-statistic 22.54990
Durbin-Watson stat 2.633115 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000032
Shortrun relationship between dpc and dgdp












Week5









Chow Breakpoint Test: 1973
F-statistic 32.76999 Probability 0.000000
Log likelihood ratio 41.15309 Probability 0.000000

There is structural change in chow breakpoint test.




Chow Breakpoint Test: 1973
F-statistic 0.799584 Probability 0.457788
Log likelihood ratio 1.746547 Probability 0.417582


There is a structural change if variables are stationary (dpc, dgdp)



Week6

Pc gdp
1 1
Determinant Residual Covariance 0.007438
Log Likelihood -14.71823
Akaike Information Criteria 1.090433
Schwarz Criteria 1.348999

1 2 *
Determinant Residual Covariance 0.004264
Log Likelihood -4.038636
Akaike Information Criteria 0.758845
Schwarz Criteria 1.194228

1 3
Determinant Residual Covariance 0.003250
Log Likelihood 0.957886
Akaike Information Criteria 0.724562
Schwarz Criteria 1.340375

Schwarz küçüldükçe iyi.

Imp gdp
1 1 *
Determinant Residual Covariance 0.015274
Log Likelihood -28.38921
Akaike Information Criteria 1.809959
Schwarz Criteria 2.068525

1 2
Determinant Residual Covariance 0.012703
Log Likelihood -24.23197
Akaike Information Criteria 1.850377
Schwarz Criteria 2.285760

1 3
Determinant Residual Covariance 0.012250
Log Likelihood -22.92395
Akaike Information Criteria 2.051331
Schwarz Criteria 2.667144



*
Date: 04/05/02 Time: 10:15
Sample(adjusted): 1961 1998
Included observations: 38 after adjusting
endpoints
Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses
IMP GDP
IMP(-1) 0.333507 -0.016898
(0.19159) (0.09995)
(1.74074) (-0.16906)

GDP(-1) 0.354594 1.048026
(0.10023) (0.05229)
(3.53797) (20.0444)

C 0.261785 0.065530
(0.23008) (0.12003)
(1.13780) (0.54595)
R-squared 0.902749 0.992606
Adj. R-squared 0.897191 0.992183
Sum sq. resids 12.40592 3.376233
S.E. equation 0.595361 0.310586
F-statistic 162.4461 2349.284
Log likelihood -32.65083 -7.923979
Akaike AIC 1.876360 0.574946
Schwarz SC 2.005643 0.704229
Mean dependent 3.957455 7.220895
S.D. dependent 1.856803 3.512980
Determinant Residual Covariance 0.015274
Log Likelihood -28.38921
Akaike Information Criteria 1.809959
Schwarz Criteria 2.068525

Granger Causality Test
Pc gdp
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 04/05/02 Time: 10:43
Sample: 1960 1998
Lags: 2
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
GDP does not Granger Cause PC 37 2.27807 0.11886
PC does not Granger Cause GDP 4.20767 0.02386
Reject Ho





Imp gdp
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 04/05/02 Time: 10:47
Sample: 1960 1998
Lags: 1
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
GDP does not Granger Cause IMP 38 12.5172 0.00116
IMP does not Granger Cause GDP 0.02858 0.86672
Reject Ho


Week7:





Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 04/12/02 Time: 12:21
Sample: 1960 1998
Lags: 2
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
DGDP does not Granger Cause DPC 36 2.06432 0.14400
DPC does not Granger Cause DGDP 3.07571 0.06046


Close to singnificant




Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 04/12/02 Time: 12:28
Sample: 1960 1998
Lags: 2
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
DIMP does not Granger Cause DGDP 36 0.47593 0.62577
DGDP does not Granger Cause DIMP 0.11255 0.89391

No effect and robust


Week9 3mayıs

Gdp first difference stationary
ADF Test Statistic -6.642470 1% Critical Value* -3.5092
5% Critical Value -2.8959
10% Critical Value -2.5849
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(GDP,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/04/02 Time: 12:16
Sample(adjusted): 1979:3 2000:2
Included observations: 84 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(GDP(-1)) -2.923480 0.440119 -6.642470 0.0000
D(GDP(-1),2) 1.333989 0.376562 3.542549 0.0007
D(GDP(-2),2) 0.807588 0.293409 2.752432 0.0074
D(GDP(-3),2) 0.419682 0.198426 2.115056 0.0376
D(GDP(-4),2) 0.149196 0.105485 1.414384 0.1612
C 1383.976 1914.469 0.722904 0.4719
R-squared 0.743179 Mean dependent var -611.6667
Adjusted R-squared 0.726716 S.D. dependent var 33373.46
S.E. of regression 17446.51 Akaike info criterion 22.44042

Sum squared resid 2.37E+10 Schwarz criterion 22.61405
Log likelihood -936.4975 F-statistic 45.14258
Durbin-Watson stat 2.048230 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000



imp
ADF Test Statistic -5.334309 1% Critical Value* -3.5101
5% Critical Value -2.8963
10% Critical Value -2.5851
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(IMP,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/04/02 Time: 12:19
Sample(adjusted): 1979:4 2000:2
Included observations: 83 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(IMP(-1),2) -3.291219 0.616991 -5.334309 0.0000
D(IMP(-1),3) 1.382558 0.555937 2.486894 0.0151
D(IMP(-2),3) 0.562257 0.412399 1.363380 0.1767
D(IMP(-3),3) -0.207737 0.262219 -0.792229 0.4307
D(IMP(-4),3) -0.050609 0.125963 -0.401777 0.6890
C 179.5016 478.7374 0.374948 0.7087
R-squared 0.964109 Mean dependent var -46.81928
Adjusted R-squared 0.961778 S.D. dependent var 22246.44
S.E. of regression 4349.274 Akaike info criterion 19.66295
Sum squared resid 1.46E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.83780
Log likelihood -810.0124 F-statistic 413.6731
Durbin-Watson stat 1.999799 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

Second difference stationary

Rer
ADF Test Statistic -4.626576 1% Critical Value* -3.5082
5% Critical Value -2.8955
10% Critical Value -2.5846
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.


Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(RER)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/04/02 Time: 12:20
Sample(adjusted): 1979:2 2000:2
Included observations: 85 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
RER(-1) -1.208211 0.261146 -4.626576 0.0000
D(RER(-1)) 0.121934 0.232439 0.524583 0.6013
D(RER(-2)) 0.133209 0.198975 0.669480 0.5051
D(RER(-3)) 0.150774 0.157741 0.955835 0.3421
D(RER(-4)) 0.132882 0.106173 1.251566 0.2144
C 10668.73 2327.227 4.584311 0.0000
R-squared 0.552891 Mean dependent var -15.60000
Adjusted R-squared 0.524593 S.D. dependent var 4099.436
S.E. of regression 2826.552 Akaike info criterion 18.79948
Sum squared resid 6.31E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.97190
Log likelihood -792.9777 F-statistic 19.53813
Durbin-Watson stat 1.986331 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Second difference stationary



Date: 05/04/02 Time: 12:35
Sample(adjusted): 1978:4 2000:2
Included observations: 87 after adjusting endpoints
Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses
DGDP DRER DIMP
DGDP(-1) -0.462539 -0.012990 0.013437
(0.10752) (0.01810) (0.03817)
(-4.30183) (-0.71783) (0.35204)

DGDP(-2) -0.247183 -0.026828 -0.006679
(0.10669) (0.01796) (0.03788)
(-2.31678) (-1.49407) (-0.17633)

DRER(-1) -0.810262 -0.724226 0.451324
(0.59335) (0.09986) (0.21064)
(-1.36557) (-7.25242) (2.14266)

DRER(-2) -1.066024 -0.344837 0.061841
(0.60267) (0.10143) (0.21395)
(-1.76884) (-3.39981) (0.28905)

DIMP(-1) -0.309235 -0.037691 -0.383469
(0.32122) (0.05406) (0.11403)
(-0.96269) (-0.69719) (-3.36282)

DIMP(-2) -0.428026 -0.118570 -0.097668
(0.31319) (0.05271) (0.11118)
(-1.36666) (-2.24950) (-0.87845)

C 1810.000 299.3140 2372.841
(2159.21) (363.391) (766.512)
(0.83827) (0.82367) (3.09564)
R-squared 0.271560 0.436993 0.216415
Adj. R-squared 0.216928 0.394767 0.157647
Sum sq. resids 2.81E+10 7.95E+08 3.54E+09
S.E. equation 18728.34 3151.948 6648.494
F-statistic 4.970635 10.34901 3.682485
Log likelihood -975.6868 -820.6513 -885.5855
Akaike AIC 22.59050 19.02647 20.51921
Schwarz SC 22.78891 19.22487 20.71761
Mean dependent 358.8851 -16.44828 1661.724
S.D. dependent 21164.03 4051.518 7243.961
Determinant Residual Covariance 1.14E+23
Log Likelihood -2679.795
Akaike Information Criteria 62.08724
Schwarz Criteria 62.68246





always insignificant


Date: 05/04/02 Time: 12:44
Sample(adjusted): 1978:4 2000:2
Included observations: 87 after adjusting endpoints
Standard errors & t-statistics in parentheses
DGDP DRER DIMP
DGDP(-1) -0.462539 -0.012990 0.013437
(0.10752) (0.01810) (0.03817)
(-4.30183) (-0.71783) (0.35204)

DGDP(-2) -0.247183 -0.026828 -0.006679
(0.10669) (0.01796) (0.03788)
(-2.31678) (-1.49407) (-0.17633)

DRER(-1) -0.810262 -0.724226 0.451324
(0.59335) (0.09986) (0.21064)
(-1.36557) (-7.25242) (2.14266)

DRER(-2) -1.066024 -0.344837 0.061841
(0.60267) (0.10143) (0.21395)
(-1.76884) (-3.39981) (0.28905)

DIMP(-1) -0.309235 -0.037691 -0.383469
(0.32122) (0.05406) (0.11403)
(-0.96269) (-0.69719) (-3.36282)

DIMP(-2) -0.428026 -0.118570 -0.097668
(0.31319) (0.05271) (0.11118)
(-1.36666) (-2.24950) (-0.87845)

C 1810.000 299.3140 2372.841
(2159.21) (363.391) (766.512)
(0.83827) (0.82367) (3.09564)
R-squared 0.271560 0.436993 0.216415
Adj. R-squared 0.216928 0.394767 0.157647
Sum sq. resids 2.81E+10 7.95E+08 3.54E+09
S.E. equation 18728.34 3151.948 6648.494
F-statistic 4.970635 10.34901 3.682485
Log likelihood -975.6868 -820.6513 -885.5855
Akaike AIC 22.59050 19.02647 20.51921
Schwarz SC 22.78891 19.22487 20.71761
Mean dependent 358.8851 -16.44828 1661.724
S.D. dependent 21164.03 4051.518 7243.961
Determinant Residual Covariance 1.14E+23
Log Likelihood -2679.795
Akaike Information Criteria 62.08724
Schwarz Criteria 62.68246






Granger Causality Test

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 05/04/02 Time: 12:50
Sample: 1978:1 2000:4
Lags: 4
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability
DRER does not Granger Cause DGDP 85 0.86568 0.48856
DGDP does not Granger Cause DRER 1.75424 0.14691
DIMP does not Granger Cause DGDP 85 0.77899 0.54229
DGDP does not Granger Cause DIMP 1.47847 0.21707
DIMP does not Granger Cause DRER 85 1.82620 0.13248
DRER does not Granger Cause DIMP 0.68005 0.60791
Yaso isimli Üye şimdilik offline konumundadır   Alıntı ile Cevapla
Cevapla

Bookmarks


Konuyu Toplam 1 Üye okuyor. (0 Kayıtlı üye ve 1 Misafir)
 
Seçenekler
Stil

Yetkileriniz
Sizin Yeni Konu Acma Yetkiniz var yok
Sizin Konu Yanıtlama Yetkiniz var
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is Açık
Smileler Açık
[IMG] Kodları Açık
HTML-KodlarıKapalı

Gitmek istediğiniz klasörü seçiniz

Benzer Konular
Konu Konuyu Başlatan Forum Cevaplar Son Mesaj
Total Club Manager 2004 Official Patch 1.2 Yaso Araçlar 0 06-24-2008 23:03
FM 2004 Official Patch 1.2 Yaso Araçlar 0 06-24-2008 12:18
Rail Simulator: The Official Expansion Pack [ 2008 ] Yaso Oyun Download ve İstekleri 0 06-17-2008 09:34


Şu Anki Saat: 01:23


İçerik sağlayıcı paylaşım sitelerinden biri olan Bilqi.com Forum Adresimizde T.C.K 20.ci Madde ve 5651 Sayılı Kanun'un 4.cü maddesinin (2).ci fıkrasına göre TÜM ÜYELERİMİZ yaptıkları paylaşımlardan sorumludur. bilqi.com hakkında yapılacak tüm hukuksal Şikayetler doganinternet@hotmail.com ve streetken27@gmail.com dan iletişime geçilmesi halinde ilgili kanunlar ve yönetmelikler çerçevesinde en geç 1 (Bir) Hafta içerisinde bilqi.com yönetimi olarak tarafımızdan gereken işlemler yapılacak ve size dönüş yapacaktır.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.36 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2017 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.

Android Rom

Android Oyunlar

Android samsung htc

Samsung Htc

Nokia Windows